So why are they so close in the polls? Barack Obama should be winning right? It is a Democratic year so he should be wiping the floor with McCain. Why isn't he? Why can't he?
I think there is a rather simple explination...
People fear change as much as they say they want it.
They want the right kind of change. They want a change that makes them comfortable and doesn't upset the apple cart too much. If they believe this change will be so radical and so different that they don't understand it, or they don't recongnize and trust the person speaking of the change they will not buy into it and will stay where they are.
Saul Alinsky once said that poeple would rather be miserable than live in chaos, even if they do desire change. I personally believe that and McCain's whole game plan is predicated on this idea.
McCain, for being a Repulican, is seen as a moderate. It is a persona he has been cultivating for years. His entire run in 2000 was predicated on being seen as rational and bipartisian. That he was not like the other Republicans on the Hill. He could go on the Daily Show and charm the liberals into thinking he wasn't so bad for a Republican. He went against the GOP so that he could contrast himself with Bush and be seen as the better man to independents and moderate Republicans. This made him lose in South Carolina and lose the presidency in 2000, but it gave him something in return. It gave him a brand. A cover. A mirage.
McCain, in some ways, is the only person they could put up this year that could possibly win this year. He has escaped the regular Republican brand and the base hates him. In the climate of America today that is a good thing because America hates the base and anyone involved in the base. The Maverick is protected and he is not seen as "Republican".
He is seen as a moderate war hero who has been in Washington for a long time. But for all of his mavericky ways, he is the comfortable choice. He is a face we have seen in a President before. People mistakenly believe they know his record because he was on SNL and seemed like a funny balanced fellow. He's a comfortable old shoe.
He's not Obama.
And that is what this election is about. McCain is NotObama. He's the default choice. He's establishment but not too establishment. He's just a regular comfort shoe. White, rich, and slighty Republican.
When Obama was ranting about not being like the other faces on the dollar bill he meant it. If he President he will be different from all the other presidents before him. He'll be a Democrat. He'll be black. He will have a muslim name. He'll be big change.
America has to be sure they are ready to deal with all of that. It has to become comfortable with an unknown. Obama hasn't been on the national scene that long. He has had only four years to build his brand, most of that brand being built in the past two years. He's the new restaurant in a nation of finicky eaters. They heard plenty about this restaurant, good and bad, and they aren't sure they want to eat their and make it a part of their steady rotation. They are unsure if his type of change will be choas.
So this is the situation. Americans are split between picking Obama and not picking Obama. There is no other contest right now. McCain is the safe bet for them. He is familiar to what they know. And that is what McCain is putting all his chip on. That he can create enough doubt that Americans don't take that plunge. That they don't get over their fears. They they don't get that veil from over their heads that they don't see that he is just as craven as Bush and that Obama is the true comfortable shoe.
That is why the polls are so close. Because Obama is not fighting McCain 2008, he is fighting against the ghost of McCain 2000. A McCain that America is comfortable with. Obama job right now is to make the sell.