He just isn't. They are two different people with two different styles and who have different ideas on how to win an election.
More after the jump...
Physical Differences
This is John Kerry:
This is Barack Obama:
Now that we have gotten the physical differences out of the way let's go to speaking style shall we? And just to make it fair we'll go with both of their convention speeches in 2004.:
Speaking Style
Barack Obama:
John Kerry:
John Kerry was a much much better speaker than both McCain or Bush but during his race he was not as inspirational as Obama is now. Nor is he as powerful a speaker as Obama is now. In fact, other than Bill Clinton, Obama is probably one of the best speakers since Mario Cuomo in Democratic politics. Do not underestimate this gift as I've seen hard right politicos get weepy eyed at one of his speeches. I still remember Joe Scarborough's stunned response to his speech on race afterward where no one talked for at least forty seconds (I'll go into that later). His speaking style is one of the most devestating weapons he can have and I'm very sure he will use it to his advantage many times during this election.
Campaign Styles
While there are some similiarities between Obama and Kerry in terms of staying above the fray mentality, there are also some big differences as well.
Kerry:
Kerry was traditional in his thoughts about how to win an election. He spent a good amount of time in both Florida and Ohio in the final point of the election. He was also hampered by money problems because of being restricted by the spending cap of 75 million. He had to limit his spending to defense states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida.
But advertising data gathered for The New York Times by Nielsen Monitor-Plus shows that from Sept. 7 through last Thursday, Mr. Kerry was running advertisements in just 13 states. He had pulled back in seven that he had tried to make competitive, including the crucial battleground of Missouri.
New York Times
In comparision, Bush was advertising in 18 states which made his reach a little bigger than Kerry's in terms of getting his message out. He also had a bigger ground game than Kerry which edged out Kerry's ground game. So Kerry was limited in only defending his own states and the swing states without having an option of expanding to Bush's territory to swing other states into his corner. This helped figure into his overall loss.
Barack Obama:
Barack Obama doesn't have a cap that is going to cut off his funds come September. Since he opted out of public fiancing he can raise as much as he needs to stay competitive in a lot more states than Kerry can. And his ground game? Well it is considered to be the biggest in American history.
"The climate has made millions of Americans who haven't been involved in a political campaign ever in their lifetimes very active," Hildebrand said. "We estimate that 70 percent of our grass-roots volunteers haven't worked in a campaign before. . . . We're somewhere just shy of 2 million volunteers, and we think we can potentially triple that on Election Day."
That would mean 6 million volunteers. For comparison, about 116 million people voted in the 2004 presidential election.
6 million volunteers before Election day? Unheard of. And he will no doubt be targeting his air game as well which will be more than what it was for John Kerry. Both could be a pain in McCain's ass come September.
Convention Dates
John Kerry:
John Kerry's convention day was in late July and it's poll effects were modest. According to RealClearPolitics the most John Kerry got out of his convention that July was a +7 and that evaporated a week later. In comparision, the GOP convention gave Bush a bounce of between 11%-16% which gave him enough of a lead to last through to November. To John Kerry's credit he did evaporate that lead as much as he could but he never regained the lead after that point in any polls. The biggest reason why this years convention is so late in the season is because John Kerry peaked too early and during a period where people were not paying attention couldn't get any momentum in his favor after that point.
Barack Obama:
A later convention date benefits Barack Obama. If Obama does anything really really well it is political theater. He eats it for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. This is going to be full on political theater to its full volume. Add in a stadium, the 45th anniversary of MLK's "I have a dream" speech, and the first black nominee for president and you have a must see event. There are going to be a lot of eyeballs. In fact, I'm going to go so far as to say it will be the most watched convention in television history. And as a plus, it will overshadow whatever the Republicans decide they want to do. I believe that Obama will get a much bigger bounce than Kerry did and it will be a great opportunity to fire up the base before battle.
Swiftboating
While I think some do have a valid point about the response from Obama in the face of McCain's increasingly negative campaign, I do believe it is overstated when compared to Kerry. I also believe that we forget that Obama has been here before.
Kerry:
While a lot of the blame for Kerry losing is based on his swiftboating a lot of people forget if it wasn't for a couple of questionable votes in Ohio, the presidency would have been his. As I have outlined above, there were a lot of other factors that made Kerry lose in 2004, his swiftboating was merely one of them. And even with that swiftboating, Kerry almost won the election as much as he almost lost. His lack of response was a factor that I am not discounting, but he did reply in many cases against the swiftboating antics lead by Bush. In fact, as soon as the swiftboat ads started surfacing Kerry started hitting back, with the help, ironically, of John McCain.
"It was the same kind of deal that was pulled on me," McCain said in an interview with The Associated Press, referring to his bitter Republican primary fight with President Bush...
"I deplore this kind of politics," McCain said. "I think the ad is dishonest and dishonorable. As it is, none of these individuals served on the boat (Kerry) commanded. Many of his crew have testified to his courage under fire. I think John Kerry served honorably in Vietnam. I think George Bush served honorably in the Texas Air National Guard during the Vietnam War."
But he did not do enough to neutralize the attacks against him and it cost him some votes that he might have won if he had been stronger.
Obama:
Fortunately Obama has already been there and done that. If there was a moment where all was almost lost it was the Reverend Wright affair.
In the midst of a heated primary Barack Obama was the Public Enemy No. 1 amoung pundits and newspapers. How could he go to such a hateful church that didn't like America. For a little while Obama faltered in the polling under the assault. A lesser politician would have fumbled and lost the primary after that. Would have never recovered. What did happen was one of the most eloquent and darn right special moments in the history of presidential politics.
He snatched his ass out of the fire and recovered. It didn't happen overnight, but slowly but surely he was stronger than he was before. I have no doubt that the Republicans are going to have a starring role for Wright in the fall, but after that performance, I'm confident in Obama to handle it.
Ending Remarks
This is not saying that Obama is not slipping. He should be more agressive when it comes McCain and the framing McCain is putting on him. But I think that Obama has a lot more going for him than Kerry did four years ago. He has a lot of fired up support. He has a lot more charisma. He also has a very good ear for hitting the pulse of things and he is a quick learner.
Kerry's election is not the same as Obama's. There are several factors here that were not there for Kerry. This is not me being pollyanna. Obama can lose this election. But I don't think comparing where Kerry was at this point and Obama at this point is a fair comparision to Obama.
Next Time:
Why are Obama and John McCain so close? I'll tell you my theory in my next diary.